Rubber upstream led the rapid rise in upstream and downstream prices of chemical products

nearly a month, the domestic chemical products market a Changhong.

According to statistics, a large number of chemical products in the near future there have been different ranges of rising trend to chemical raw materials caprolactam, for example, nearly a week the product rose by 1,000 yuan per ton, or 5.06%, while the average price point of view,
This month the product rose 1.57% from last month.

Among the many chemical products, the most powerful performance is the synthetic rubber products and raw materials – butadiene.
Since November last year, the monthly average of about 25% of the chain rose, the price in January compared to the same period last year rose nearly 280%.

Although the press on February 20 deadline, butadiene and its downstream products (styrene butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber) there has been a small price correction, but this does not affect the goods in the near future to maintain a strong market.
And from the upstream material to the downstream part of the price of conduction speed point of view, the current wave of this price may reflect the conduction speed.
“Since September, Sinopec has very tightly adjusted the price of butadiene, the pace of price adjustment and amplitude are very exaggerated, coupled with since the beginning of last year, whether the factory operating rate or inventory are at a low point, resulting in this
A round of raw materials from the finished product to the price transmission is very obvious, “an industry source told reporters.

In addition, can not be ignored another major source of influence from the Asia-Pacific market-related products hot.
According to S & P Global Platts to provide an Asia-Pacific market, styrene (synthetic rubber, another raw material) price trend, since November last year since the curve is very steep.
The data show that styrene from November last year began to 1100 US dollars / ton rose to the recent close to 1,500 US dollars / ton, the domestic and international markets are very close to the two.
“This rally remained in the first two quarters, on the one hand from China’s inventory is still not high,” S & P Global Platts Chemical analyst Prima Vesventan told the 21st century economic reporter.

Cost increase faster

Whether it is China or the Asia-Pacific region market, you can find butadiene, styrene prices and the international oil price rise curve is basically consistent with the two chemical products are made of oil, the rise of the three
Amplitude is basically consistent.

OPEC reached an agreement by the agreement, in November 2016 international crude oil prices from nearly 40 US dollars / barrel quickly rose to the current 56 US dollars / barrel, the rate of increase of more than 30%.
While the international oil prices around 55 US dollars / barrel price remained shock for more than two months, during which the downstream products still maintained a rally.
From the international oil prices and the two chemical products prices rally comparison, on the one hand can be seen in the three rally time nodes to maintain a high degree of consistency, on the other hand, even if the international oil prices remain stable, its downstream products still appear
High rise.
“In recent years, chemical products prices, from raw materials to the product side of the conduction speed is very fast,” Zhuo record rubber analyst Wang Yulian told reporters.
“In particular, in January this year, the chemical market raw materials and product prices rose very fast, basically keep pace.”

And the industry insiders told reporters that there are two reasons for this phenomenon, on the one hand from
Previous inventories and operating rates remained low.
“At this time last year, whether it is styrene or butadiene prices are very low, the enterprise in a long period of time to maintain a very low operating rate, rubber products in Shandong operating rate of less than 50%, or even a large number of devices in the
Idle state, “she said.

on the other hand from the second half of last year, China’s industry there is a certain degree of signs of warming, and in September last year, the new traffic regulations released.
“These two positive directly promote the increase in heavy truck sales, heavy truck sales in the second half year on year surge 50%, stimulating the tire industry recovery, led the demand for related rubber products.” She told reporters.

Zhuo record information from the chemical market prices, styrene butadiene rubber prices rose 176% in January; butadiene rubber prices rose 216% in January.

121998871111219982387 Chinese and foreign markets to maintain close contact

At the press deadline, the price of butadiene on the day there has been a substantial decline, but the overall situation from the Asia-Pacific region, the second quarter before the goods still have a strong support for the fundamentals

“At least eight refineries producing butadienes are scheduled to shut down in the second quarter, and the production of butadiene in China is expected to decline sharply in the second quarter,” Prima Vesventan said.
“Demand has risen since December last year, and this situation will exacerbate tight supply.”

is not only a butadiene, China last year for almost all chemical products demand has maintained a strong recovery.
With the most basic aromatics – benzene, for example, China ‘s demand in 2016 for the Asia – Pacific region to provide the most active driving force.
This performance is particularly evident in the second half of 2016.
“China since July to December last year, in addition to imports of benzene outside the increase in October has remained at 200% or more, especially in December last year, this rose more than 400% year on year.” Prima Vesva
Natan told reporters.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the main exporting country of this product – South Korea’s export data, China has become the second largest export site of South Korea’s benzene, with the largest export destination – the US exports compared to the gap is not large

highly dependent on foreign benzene to a certain extent, also contributed to the Chinese market in the price response and the Asia-Pacific market as a whole to maintain a high degree of consistency, but this situation may change with the expansion of China’s benzene production capacity.
“As a petrochemical industry, China is very important in the Asian petrochemical market,” Prima Vesventan said, “in the next few years, we will see China in the petrochemical production capacity to achieve a new
Height, for example, in 2017 China will add 700,000 tons / year of toluene production, which will inevitably produce ripple effect in the market. “

Prima Vesventan said that China in the field of non-traditional technology to seek
Self-sufficient initiatives to keep them dependent on imports.

The so-called non-traditional technology, is the use of coal methanol, and use this methanol to produce olefins.
According to the author had reported that in 2016 China’s Inner Mongolia, Shandong and other places to invest a large number of coal-to-olefins project in China in this area of ​​technology reserves ahead of the rest of the world or other countries in the next two years these projects are put into operation,
On the Asian olefin market have a very big impact.

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