Rubber: unspeakable trend peaked

Hujiao fell sharply yesterday, the main contract breakdown of the early neckline position 19500 yuan / ton line.
Technically, Hujiao has Powei.
February 17 announced the Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory increased significantly, and in recent days, synthetic rubber prices continued to fall, the formation of short-term trend of natural rubber to suppress.
But the current pattern of supply and demand to see, focus on downstream demand, because the supply side of the seasonal atrophy has become a determinant.
But the downstream demand has not yet falsified before, we think Hujiao unspeakable.

after the Lantern Festival

lower operating rate rise again as of February 17 the week, steel tire enterprises operating rate of 53.46 percent, an increase of 5.14% over the previous week; semi-steel tire enterprises operating rate of 69.74 percent, an increase of 15.68% over the previous week.
Last week is the first week after the Lantern Festival, operating rate in a state of recovery, semi-steel tire operating rate recovery faster, late tire plant operating rate will gradually rise.

recent tire factory continued price increases tide to a certain extent, ease the cost pressure, making its start enthusiasm has not been significantly inhibited.
According to the latest news, the evening of February 22 the United States on the Huaka bus tires double counter-vote, finds that imports from China’s passenger car tires did not harm the interests of US companies.
The result of the ruling means that the Chinese products will not be taxed, the deposit has been levied in full refund.
This result in the short term for the improvement of the operating rate have a certain impact, the long term is also conducive to stimulate the downstream factory exports, good Jiaojia.

heavy truck sales in the spotlight

Focus 2017 Highlights consumption growth, due to efforts to reduce policy, we do not hope to bring incremental sales of cars, but to focus on heavy truck sales growth highlights.

January heavy truck sales data grew more than doubled, hit the high growth rate in recent years.
Although some of which was delayed in December last year, the total amount of data from December last year to January this year, up to 85%, reflecting the strong momentum of heavy truck sales.
Recalling 2016, heavy truck sales growth points are mainly two blocks: First, the logistics demand continued to improve, bringing logistics and related heavy truck demand increased, the second is the end of September 2016 in September to investigate the implementation of the overloading of goods,
Heavy truck sales to bring new amounts.
After the policy came out, the implementation time will be a quarter or so, should be able to extend to the first half of 2017, so the new volume can be maintained.
In addition, infrastructure investment increased, will also increase the heavy truck replacement consumption.
What investors are now wary of is that the decline in transport costs brought about by the impact of bad, or weaken the order of the new truck power, the latter to focus on.

natural rubber supply in the first quarter

Since the third quarter of last year, natural rubber and synthetic rubber spread continued to widen, the formation of natural rubber prices continue to support.
But nearly a week, synthetic rubber prices fell significantly, for the support of natural rubber weakened.
However, based on the structural adjustment of the production process caused by the shortage and the first quarter of this year, centralized maintenance, before March, synthetic rubber prices upward momentum should be sufficient.

Hujiao trend there is no signs of stabilization, combined with the domestic compound rubber prices, Hujiao or continue to weaken.
But the supply and demand side, the first quarter of tight supply and demand pattern unchanged.
First, the global supply is in a seasonal atrophy, followed by consumption or continue to maintain the momentum of 2016.
Supply and demand tight support Hujiao prices easy to rise or difficult to fall.
February 14, Thailand, the second batch of throwing dust settled, the latest news in early March will start the third throwing storage, during which Hujiao prices should be repeated, but based on the midline optimistic, the proposed long-term grasp the opportunity to buy.

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