technology has been empty
Hujiao last week has fallen below the wide range of shocks since January under the track, short-term trend has been turned empty.
The daily chart out of the large wedge shape, and December 19 last year, the daily pattern of rebar is very similar.
Technically, Hujiao long-term trend has also been empty.
Now the northern part of Thailand has been stopped, the southern part of Thailand will gradually stop cutting, the global production will enter the annual freezing point period.
In accordance with the law of previous years, this time the supply will be equal to the inventory.
Inventory is not an argument, but a variable.
Changes in inventory depend on demand, and demand is the core variable after years.
In other words, the supply of the influence of the market greatly reduced.
And this year is different, Thailand flood factors disappear, the early suppression of the Thai throwing factors began to play a role.
Taking into account the March Thailand will also throw storage of 110,000 tons, so the supply is still on the disk role.
But the March throw storage and February is different, then there is no new production, if the demand is good, coupled with the last time in March throwing storage, the marginal effect of diminishing, March throwing storage influence is likely to be weakened.
In addition, Hujiao unexpectedly fell last week, and the market for the interpretation of the downstream tire business procurement is not enough, not from the supply point of view to explain the market, we can see the supply factors are losing attention, but the recession is slower than in previous years.
current mainstream heavy truck business orders sufficient, moderate release of production capacity, heavy truck recovery is expected to extend the market.
January 2017, the domestic heavy truck market, a total of about 82,000 sales of various types of vehicles, growth of 9%, compared with last year’s 36,800 substantial growth of 122%!
This sales value, but also hit the last six years in January sales record highs.
The last record high, occurred in 2011, when sales in January was 85,000.
The first half of heavy truck sales continue to be optimistic.
From the macro point of view, the general cycle before the management of steady growth has not changed the idea of the automotive industry 17-year policy is very broad and friendly; from the industry level, the rule of good profits will continue to release 17 years; 3, the country four emissions upgrade
Rising costs are gradually being digested; 4, heavy truck industry update rate is still low and industry stocks in the past seven years to the lowest level.
short need to be careful, do more patience
From a technical point of view, last week Hujiao short-term trends and long-term trends have been turned empty.
Before the market generally see more, last week’s decline so that most people feel surprised.
The market for the crash last week, more than the interpretation of the downstream tire companies lack of procurement, or traders high inventory.
In fact, all the factors used to explain the market must be able to predict the market factors, otherwise the explanation is only comfort and self-comfort, and the transaction does not and any relationship.
In the long run, the demand side of the details of the situation, and no market recognition of the data, and few people will judge the big pattern accordingly, so these explanations of insufficient letters, but also not enough to change the fundamentals of the judge.
At present fundamentals low inventory + high demand logic is still established.
It should be noted that low inventory refers to the level of inventory this year lower than the same period last year, high demand is that heavy truck sales better than last year.
Fundamentals of the big pattern has not changed, but there is a technical and fundamentals deviated from the phenomenon.
Fundamental analysis is not the ultimate magic weapon, the fundamental analysis of the equivalent of a 60 day moving average.
Prices and fundamentals deviated from, as if the short-term price movements and 60-day moving average departure, are normal.
In the case of the two departure, short-term operation should be technical-based.
On the other hand, it is normal for the technology to go ahead of the fundamentals, but the timing of the technical downturn is very important.
The key to this shift is often in the middle of the positive fundamentals.
And the current macro-optimistic, March, April demand season soon, the current technical situation of a thorough transition point, obviously too early
So, we believe that the fundamentals of the situation in a good situation, Hujiao long-term pattern has not turned empty
Operation, short need to be careful, do more patience.