Rubber supply and demand structure “face” natural rubber market decline

“Now the sale of natural rubber is not smooth, the tire business raw materials inventory is relatively high, take the goods due to price decline and slow down, the market sentiment turned negative.” In the last period and Yongan futures recently held in Hangzhou, “rubber futures market
Seminar “, the North China days a plastic traders said the recent sharp turn of the natural rubber market reasons.

Since mid-February, natural rubber prices will decline all the way.
To futures prices, for example, the main 1705 contract from February 15 high of 22310 yuan / ton fell to the current 18360 yuan / ton, the cumulative decline of 3950 yuan / ton, down nearly 18%.

Futures prices lower at the same time, natural rubber spot prices also fell sharply.
According to the business monitoring data, from mid-February to February 24, natural rubber spot price has dropped to 17,600 yuan / ton, down nearly 15%.

Chen Ling, an analyst at the business community, natural rubber prices worsened, on the one hand the recent increase in local supply of natural rubber market, mainly Thai rubber storage; the other is the domestic Qingdao Bonded Port rubber stocks increased significantly
As of mid-February, Qingdao Bonded Port rubber stocks were 156,600 tons, up 28.56% over mid-January.

From the supply point of view, Unocal Qingdao Trade Co., Ltd. Futures Trading Director Feng Li said that in 2017 the global rubber will once again enter the production cycle, the annual growth rate of natural rubber production will remain at around 4%.
She said that by the adverse weather, especially the impact of floods last year, the actual gap between global supply and demand of natural rubber may be 300,000 -35 million tons.

“The impact of floods on natural rubber production is more pronounced in January to February, and global rubber production is expected to be reduced by about 150,000 tonnes due to floods in 2017. However, the impact of this reduction in the new open season
Was offset by some factors, such as early stop, yield rose, tapping area increased, increasing the enthusiasm of rubber farmers, etc. “Feng Li said.

In her view, the global supply of natural rubber in 2017 the decline in the impact of extreme weather on the impact of natural rubber will be reduced.
If there is no extreme weather, natural rubber supply increased the possibility of great.
“The increase in supply is mainly due to the recent recovery in prices and the increase in open area, which has also been increased in areas that have been unable to open the area in the past few years due to low prices, and some areas may be cut off early in 2016 due to abundant rainfall in 2016.

According to reports, 2016 cut, the price of natural rubber is relatively low, there part of the phenomenon of abandonment.
“The lowest cost of domestic production is 12,000 yuan / ton, natural rubber prices in the 15000-16000 yuan / ton, the peon farmers may wait and see in the price rise, the enthusiasm of pegging and cutting is higher than in previous years.
Li said.

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