Fan Yanwen: want to rise is difficult to fall is also difficult! Rubber is difficult to see unilateral trend of the market

interviewed Shanghai-Jun-Rubber Company futures portion RESEARCH Investment Director Fanyan Wen

core ideas

1, rubber the most recent period, especially after also rushed 22300, a new high, but this new high after the fact, the incremental amount of no
Let go.
In the year before the supply of this one to reduce the expected, but their actual raw material procurement is not much action.
For raw materials in terms of natural rubber, it is the overall trend of the emergence of a very large pressure, but also and the spot to do a corresponding return.
2, the current overall supply and demand situation should be alleviated before the Spring Festival a lot.

3, the start should be kept slowly in the normal recovery, like the downstream tire factory remained at sixty or seven into the left and right, there are some products industry started close to seventy to eighty, but the key is a problem is that the normal logic of their order or comparison
More, but because of the high cost of repression, they are now taking into account not to continue to receive new orders.

4, the other affect the price of rubber is a factor we look at the demand side is not as expected as the tension, the other is Thailand’s throwing storage
5, the rubber should be from the highest point 22300 to today, the lowest had 19600, in fact, its adjustment has reached a ratio of 15%, from its proportion speaking, the short term is a revised trend of the situation, the maximum is 22,300,
But because the latter part of the original things have become uncertain, from the current terms, this trend I think there may be no obvious trend of the market trend.

6, short term, adjust the 15% of the words, this support in the 19500,19800 or so.
But the top of the same, is currently facing the 20500,20600 pressure is also very large
In this small interval to do the oscillation, I think the operability is greater.

complete voice shorthand continue down

experts interviewed

Fanyan Wen

| Shanghai-Jun-Rubber Company futures investment research unit director

Fanyan Wen, Shanghai-Jun-Rubber Company futures investment research unit director; four years experience in futures, spot practitioners
Experience for four years; obsessed with the market in-depth study, the industry chain is now combined for the company planning investment strategy and hedging program, strict control of corporate funds, import and export trade risks.
In the “Futures Daily” “New Financial Watch” “Securities Times” and many other newspapers and networks published special articles.
2011 reelected in 2012 won the Futures Daily and Securities Times held the fourth and fifth session of the Chinese analysts selected the best natural rubber analyst and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, outstanding analyst for natural rubber.
2013 – 2014 Shanghai TV “Oriental Finance – trading front” column invited guest guests.

voice shorthand

bulk internal reference: these days rubber trend is not very good, how do you see?

Fan Yanwen: rubber because of the recent period, especially after the year also rushed 22300 a new high, but after this new high in fact its incremental, the amount did not release.
In turn, we look at the demand side, because we had a year ago when the supply of this piece is expected to reduce, so the price has been very strong.
For the year after the start of a demand to improve the rise of a heavy volume, in fact, we actually from the Spring Festival until after the Lantern Festival, did not see this phenomenon, we only saw the tire sales of finished goods in the continuous increase in prices, but they
The actual raw material procurement is not much action.
So for the raw materials in terms of natural rubber, it is the overall trend of the emergence of a very large pressure, but also and the spot to do a corresponding return.

bulk internal reference: how the recent supply and demand of rubber?

Fan Yanwen: supply and demand should be no years ago such a very intuitive concept of the people, the demand side because the raw material factory, the factory basically raw materials used to the end of February, early March, the downstream factory is also experienced in the second half of last year, the overall substantial
After the rise, but also have taken measures, that is, and the upstream factories or large traders have signed a long.
In the long follow-up and a monthly supply of goods to the shore to supply it, to maintain the production of the factory.
For the current situation as the Qingdao rubber market slowly accumulate and to the shore of the resources but there is a slow sales profile, that is, the overall supply and demand than the Spring Festival should be alleviated before a lot.

large internal reference: rubber-related industry operating rate situation how?

Fan Yanwen: start should be kept in the normal slow recovery, like the downstream tire factory remained at sixty percent or so, there are some products industry started close to seventy to eighty, but the key is a problem is that the normal logic of their order or comparison
But because of the high cost of repression, they are now taking into account not to continue to receive new orders, is to be in the overall sales can be very smooth, and then raise the operating rate up, because now the finished product is a loss
Or profit has been greatly shrunk, so now the operating rate completely hit all the words, the factory is not much practical significance, or for the factory’s overall capital turnover is also a very big pressure, so the start should be more than
It is expected that the pickback will be slower, but it will also recover in the normal process.

Bulk internal reference: what other factors may affect the price of rubber?
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Fan Yanwen: Now we are looking at the demand side is not as expected as the tension, the other is that we say Thailand’s throwing storage, because now has a twice the recent 200,000 tons of the amount of throwing to the market.
Then follow-up may be after March, part of Thailand should be part of some of the tire factory involved in the country in Thailand opened a number of tire factories, they will have some goods to digest.
On the other hand will be exported to the country, then these are also coming to the next three or four months, but the current price is relatively good an advantage, so this is the price of our spot there is no way to further higher key factors.
The next throw is stored on March 9, from the current price of the reserve price of the reserve price and now a new raw material prices and maintain a current pattern of flat water.
So this third throw may be weaker than the previous two cases.

Bulk Senate: What is your expectation of the next trend of rubber?

Fan Yanwen: rubber should be from the highest point 22300 to today, the lowest today has 19600, in fact, it has reached a 15% adjustment rate, from its proportion, the short term is a revised trend, but because the latter part of the original
Some of the things have become uncertain, including the rise in demand in the future with the supply of the rise, in fact, are two uncertain things.
So from the current terms, this trend I think there may be no obvious trend of the market, may require a higher technical indicators to do some short-term trading strategy based.

Bulk internal reference: the bottom of the support level may be where?
In the short term, adjust the 15% of the words, this support in the 19500,19800 or so, but the top of the same, is currently facing the pressure is 20500,20600 pressure is also very large.
In this small interval to do the oscillation, I think the operability is greater.

Bulk Senate: Do you think you want to operate according to the oscillation market?

Fan Yanwen: Yes, because now the overall clear, or confirm the things are basically very few, may also have to wait, there are some clear signals, or whether it is micro or macroscopically there are some other guidelines to go
And then take another wave of relatively large market.

Bulk internal reference: Do you have any suggestions for investors?

Fan Yanwen: as much as possible wait and see I think.
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Bulk internal reference: feeling is not very clear look.

Fan Yanwen: Yes.

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