City early assessment: commodity generally callback rubber, black led the decline

financial community website February 22 news on the broader market commodity most callback, rubber lead, black, can be, followed by oil, outer disk crude oil strong support for asphalt red.
11.49%, methanol fell 1.66%, glass fell 1.66%, thread fell 1.11%.

short-term steel prices are expected to remain strong side

Cui said that steel prices after the Spring Festival once again pull up sharply, the steel city authorities worried coal to reproduce the previous trend, in order to take measures to stabilize the market.
Steel prices rise to stimulate the production of steel mills, steel stocks are still huge, the actual steel products in the middle reaches of the accumulation of obvious.
This policy on the one hand in order to allow steel to continue production capacity, on the other hand to prevent the market with excessive production of speculation steel prices, the overall economic operation have a negative impact.
There have been rumors that the NDRC is considering the end of the heating season in mid-March, from the current allow coal mines in accordance with the 330 working days of production, returned to 276 working days in accordance with the production to prevent the re-emergence of excess capacity. 112199887141128811111219982387 Previously rumors that the NDRC is considering the end of March heating season,
Development and Reform Commission has not yet finalized the plan.
Insiders told the China Securities Journal reporter, if this policy can be implemented, thermal coal, coking coal will be supported, but the possibility of short-term policy implementation remains to be seen.

Xinda futures research report pointed out that from the supply side of the rebar profit is good, start up, steel stocks accumulated substantial accumulation of social stocks continue to increase with the chain, the supply side pressure is still.
But the demand side to better.
Charge side, the steel continued to suppress the price, iron ore prices firm.
Overall, the operation of the proposed more than a temporary hold, 3180 yuan / ton stop loss, the first target of 3600 yuan / ton.

Baocheng Futures also believe that the recent environmental protection measures to upgrade again, some cities will increase the intensity of steel production and environmental protection inspectors open, the annual steel market supply contraction is expected to further strengthen, plus real estate investment is expected to stabilize and infrastructure investment overweight
Of the background, steel city confidence has been improved, is expected to remain strong steel prices.
Short term, the recent black overall will remain strong, but if the demand period between April and April was significantly less than expected, the price of the relevant varieties will face greater downward pressure, which can focus on changes in the latter part of the inventory….
& Rdquo; SDIC Shun (15.95 -0.19% , BUY ) black Futures senior analyst Jianhui said the medium and long term, the decline in demand and the capacity to raise the background, in 2017 the steel industry
The overall supply and demand is the pattern of double down, black prices will be transferred from the unilateral rose wide shocks.
1110998871411219911111219982387 methanol target temporarily see 2800 yuan / ton

supply shortage under the influence of methanol prices firm, but the high price is difficult to downstream conduction.
Nearly half of the current consumption of methanol from coal to olefins, in the case of low crude oil prices, the price advantage of coal olefins has been no obvious.
With the methanol prices, coal olefins not only do not have the price advantage, but there has been a loss, which is particularly clear mining enterprises outside the methanol.
For example, polypropylene, polypropylene powder, the cost of roughly 3 times the price of methanol +1500 yuan / ton.
This calculation, the cost of methanol production outside the production of 10,000 yuan / ton, while the cost of oil polypropylene is only 6,000 yuan / ton.
Therefore, the current price of 9,000 yuan / ton of polypropylene sales, oil polypropylene profits, outside the production of polypropylene is facing a loss of polypropylene.

Methanol prices are at such a high level, the downstream polyolefin is difficult to accept, the cost is not smooth conduction caused by late demand worrying.
As for the traditional consumption areas, although with the warmer weather, downstream enterprises have resumed production, but because of the small proportion, coupled with the terminal consumption is difficult to pick up, large-scale procurement is difficult to appear, difficult to boost demand.

I believe that, because the demand is difficult to carry down, the methanol is easy to fall difficult to rise, yesterday’s decline is a breakthrough probability, but taking into account the import and international trade conduction, methanol short-term do not have the possibility of a sharp decline, the target temporarily see 2800
Yuan / ton near.

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