Analysis of market development of coatings raw materials

[PTA] future domestic PTA oversupply pressure will continue, and even further aggravated. In 2014, China added about 10000000 tons of new equipment capacity, an increase of 30%, but the actual capacity utilization declined further. The main bottleneck is that the growth rate of downstream demand has remained at 4%&mdash in recent years, and the 6% is low, which does not match the expansion rate of upstream production capacity. This will further exacerbate the competition in the future PTA market. PTA production profits are expected to linger at low levels for a long time. On the one hand, PTA prices will be more sensitive to cost volatility, and on the other hand, the market will rise and the space will be significantly suppressed. We believe that PTA prices can be split into Petrochemical upstream costs, PX production profits, and PTA production profits. 2015 Petrochemical is expected to be weak run, without large-scale maintenance events under the PX and PTA of the profits will remain low, so the overall PTA in 2015 is expected to remain weak running pattern, in the PTA and PX device will be centralized maintenance of short-term rebound.
PP: in 2015, taking into account does not match the new capacity put in speed and demand growth, polypropylene industry will enter the overall surplus, the new capacity put, the high cost of production exit, imported extrusion will coexist, inventory accumulation will continue. Low oil prices will become the normal operation in 2015, the cost of moving down the center of gravity will speed up polypropylene prices. Considering the price of crude oil operation path and new capacity put in rhythm, we expect the price of polypropylene in 4— and 10&mdash May; November may appear local rebound, annual polypropylene spot price interval running in 7000— 9500 yuan \/ ton, excluding futures prices fell 6000 yuan \/ ton may. We believe that the biggest uncertainty in the market comes from the replacement of demand for materials, which will be a risk factor in the process of decline.
Methanol: in 2015, the methanol market will change from the supply side to the demand side. Domestic new capacity growth is slowing, methanol (coal) olefins installations concentrated in large numbers, the demand for olefins will gradually change the current pattern of oversupply of methanol. But we still have cautious optimism, but not radical attitude, optimistic about the 2015 methanol market, methanol prices are expected to run roughly in the range of 2000— 3000 yuan \/ ton, the overall pace of running a wave of fold.
PVC:PVC market in 2015 to capacity pattern unchanged, the overall market trend is not too optimistic, the downturn will be the main tone of the market. PVC is expected to be in the 5800&mdash, 6200 yuan \/ ton range fluctuations, the overall price will be lower than the center of gravity in 2014.

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